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"published": "2025-05-29T17:02:19Z",
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"content": "<p>Polymarket question: "will Jesus Christ return in 2025?" has a 3% probability. </p><p>Polymarket wants to provide a public good: correct probability estimates. It fails because how the market is structured and limited.</p><p>spoiler: "The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price."</p><p><a href=\"https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" translate=\"no\"><span class=\"invisible\">https://</span><span class=\"ellipsis\">ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/</span><span class=\"invisible\">03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/</span></a></p><p><a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/economics\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>economics</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/predictionMarkets\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>predictionMarkets</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/mechanismDesign\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>mechanismDesign</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/MarketDesign\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>MarketDesign</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/gameTheory\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>gameTheory</span></a></p>",
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"en": "<p>Polymarket question: "will Jesus Christ return in 2025?" has a 3% probability. </p><p>Polymarket wants to provide a public good: correct probability estimates. It fails because how the market is structured and limited.</p><p>spoiler: "The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price."</p><p><a href=\"https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" translate=\"no\"><span class=\"invisible\">https://</span><span class=\"ellipsis\">ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/</span><span class=\"invisible\">03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/</span></a></p><p><a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/economics\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>economics</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/predictionMarkets\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>predictionMarkets</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/mechanismDesign\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>mechanismDesign</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/MarketDesign\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>MarketDesign</span></a> <a href=\"https://mathstodon.xyz/tags/gameTheory\" class=\"mention hashtag\" rel=\"tag\">#<span>gameTheory</span></a></p>"
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